Suppose Note_1 that a time series
of

data
points
is
given. A likelihood function

gives the probability that the observed data would
result from the proposed stochastic mechanism relative to all other possible
outcomes [132]. The data

is a realization of the random variable

.
On the log scale,

is a realization of the random variable

The likelihood function

is

where

is the joint probability distribution function (pdf) that

occurs given that

oc-curs. This is a normal pdf with mean

and variance

.
Thus,
and

The
maximum likelihood parameter estimates are those
values of the parameters

that maximize

,
or equivalently that maximize

.
A calculation
shows
where
are
the log-residuals. The critical points

of

are zeroes of the
derivatives
i.e.,
are roots of the uncoupled
equations
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